MORE BREAKING: CT-Sen: Dodd to Retire
Posted by michael in 2010 Elections on January 6th, 2010
Both the Post and Times are now reporting the embattled Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd will not seek re-election this fall. It would appear the Senator Dodd will make his announcement later today/tomorrow in his home state.
This may offer quite the twist to an already interesting campaign in a solidly Democratic state that Cook Political Index has leaning Republican. It would seem that this certainly has the potential to put a damper on Republican hopefuls Linda McMahon and Rob Simmons, who’s potential for success has largely been tied to Dodd’s unpopularity. It sounds as though this may also offer an opportunity for Richard Blumenthal, the state’s popular attorney, general to jump into the ring.
As with Sen. Dorgan’s recent moves, we’ll certainly be following this one in the coming days.
BREAKING ND-Sen: Senator Byron Dorgan Not Seeking Re-Election
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on January 5th, 2010
According to the Bismarck Tribune, Senator Byron Dorgan will not be seeking re-election for the United States Senate this fall. This is devastating news to Senate Democrats who are already struggling with low poll numbers for the midterms. We will have more in depth coverage in coming days.
OH Attorney General: What the…?
Posted by michael in 2010 Elections on January 4th, 2010
Last month, the state GOP over in Ohio declined to endorse a candidate in the state’s upcoming primary for State Attorney General. This wouldn’t be all that interesting if one of the two Republican candidates wasn’t Mike DeWine.
Does that name sound familiar? It probably does – DeWine is a former two-term U.S. Senator from Ohio who was unseated by Sherrod Brown back in 2006. The Ohio Republican Party chose not to endorse a former a former Senator (who also served four terms in the House and one term as Lieutenant Governor) over Delaware County Prosecutor Dave Yost (for our non-Buckeye readers, Delaware County is largely made up of fast-growing suburbs of the state capitol, Columbus.)
If you’re scratching your head you aren’t alone. It’s not as though the state party is refraining from endorsements, having made endorsements for both U.S. Senate and Ohio Secretary of State. The issue it would seem is an attempt by the party to keep the growing Tea Party wing of the GOP happy. Local Tea Party groups appear to have gone on record calling for “fresh faces,” (of which DeWine is certainly not one) and some county parties have already made the case for Yost.
Political guru Larry Sabato went so far as to say the move was “truly remarkable.” Although the GOP is not officially taking sides, this would seem to be a clear win for underdog Yost who is treating it as such. While DeWine seems to have taken the move in stride, it’s hard to imagine a lack of endorsement doing anything but harming his Nixon-like political comeback.
With so much talk about the battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party it’s surprising this hasn’t gotten any real attention. Although the primary isn’t until May, we at the Daily Horse Race will certainly be watching this one.
CT-Sen: New Strategy for Dodd is Bring Home the Bacon
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on December 23rd, 2009
With a backdrop of health care legislation supporters, Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut along with other colleagues did a brief speech on their legislative achievement in the Mansfield Room of the US Capitol. Upon hearing the crowd’s applause, he jokingly stated that he hoped all of those in the audience were from Connecticut.
All joking aside, Dodd is in the fight of his political life and as Politico reported in a piece today, he is pulling all of the punches he can to bring home in the bacon in an attempt to win back good favor with the voters of Connecticut. Among some of the goodies Dodd has brought back to Connecticut, according to Politico, are: “…senior citizen centers, low-income heating assistance, education programs, new buses and highway funds in Connecticut.” Also, Dodd is pushing transportation dollars to build high speed rail systems in Connecticut as well as trying to get the Pentagon to buy more Connecticut made aircraft engines. Furthermore, Dodd managed to get an $100 million grant for a university hospital in Connecticut, and speculation is that this hospital will go to the University of Connecticut.
If Dodd’s own internal polling numbers are a valid indication of his progress, his strategy of unapologetically bringing home the bacon may be working. Real Clear Politics reported on Tuesday that Dodd released internal polling numbers showing him tied at 46-46 with WWE CEO Linda McMahon and just 6 points behind Republican frontrunner Rep. Rob Simmons at 51-46. That is a significant improvement from the Rasmussen poll released earlier this month that showed Dodd behind Simmons at 48-35 and behind McMahaon at 44-38.
If Dodd can continue to bring home the bacon for Connecticut, perhaps he can transcend his lagging poll numbers and remind Connecticut voters why it is wise to vote for the experienced incumbent with enough prestige to bring home the goods. It will be interesting to see how his strategy is working once external polling numbers are released in the future.
PA-Sen: As Specter Moves Left, Toomey Makes Gains in General
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on December 21st, 2009
Just over a year ago, Arlen Specter was campaigning for the Presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin as a Republican Senator of Pennsylvania. Of course, when Arlen Specter voted for the Democratic backed stimulus package this past spring, the vote emboldened conservative challenger Pat Toomey to the point where it drove Specter out of his former Republican Party and into the Democratic Party citing poor GOP primary poll numbers.
Initially, Specter came into the Democratic Party as the only viable challenger for the nomination. At that point, he was a conservative Democrat vowing to go against the Employee Free Choice Act and a public option in health care . As his primary challenger Joe Sestak pointed out in a recent Huffington Post op-ed, where he tries to paint Specter as “Pennsylvania’s Joe Lieberman,” Specter has switched his position on both of these issues among others. Furthermore, Specter has also positioned himself to the left of Joe Sestak on the Afghanistan escalation painting himself as a dove while Sestak has taken a hawkish position.
A recent Quinniapiac poll has Specter tied with Toomey in a general election match up, while in May he had a 53-33 lead over Toomey. Specter still has a comfortable lead over Joe Sestak in the primary with a 53-30 lead, in fact, he has made gains since October when the numbers were 44-25 for Specter.
So for now, at least in his primary race, Specter’s leftward leans have worked to his favor. However, if Rep. Sestak can get his voice heard and push his message that Specter has only made his leftward leans to advance his long time career of opportunism, it could be damaging to Specter in a primary race. So far, obviously, it has not resonated. One thing is for certain, Pennsylvania politics could be changing. One year ago, no one would imagine Toomey, a Santorum-style conservative, tying or beating a Democrat in statewide polls.
VA-Gov: Do We Even Have a Front Runner?
Posted by jaren in 2009 Elections on June 4th, 2009
While it was starting to seem like Terry McAulife to take the clear lead in the Virginia governor’s race with Creigh Deeds as the runner up, Politico’s current top headline notes that Brian Moran came out of a Wednesday night interview sponsored by Politico, Youtube, Google and local ABC affiliate out of Virginia “swinging”. Brian Moran certainly poised himself as the more liberal candidate over national party establishment candidate Terry McAulife and the more moderate Creigh Deeds.
As stated previously, recent polls make the initial lead of Terry McAulife seem a lot less certain. The Washington Examiner reported on June 2 that three polls released in the last two days at that point all showed Terry McAulife not in the lead and one showed former state Delegate Brian Moran ahead by 16 points in the liberal Northern Virginia region, a heavily populated region in the state. The Washington Post endorsement of Creigh Deeds has also made the race a lot less certain by propelling his approval ratings in the DC suburbs and helping him take leads in some polls.
Politico’s Scorecard blog reported on a Public Policy Polling survey that showed Deeds leading McAulife 27 to 24% with Moran close behind at 22%. So, it is hard to tell what could happen in this primary that is just 5 days away on June 9. Creigh Deeds is poising himself as the reasonable Democratic moderate similar to Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. He is considered the underdog who comes from the more rural region of Virginia and may be appealing to Democratic voters outside of the DC region. Terry McAulife is the well connected national candidate who will be aided by his benefit from Bill Clinton and other kingpins within the Democratic Party. Moran has the support of a lot of mayors and is considered a “consensus building” candidate but also, as Politico noted, is currently trying to place himself as the more liberal candidate with Deeds to the right of the race and McAulife somewhere in the middle. We’ll be be watching this race closely as the primary draws very near.
PA-Sen: Rep. Joe Sestak to Run Against Specter
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 27th, 2009
Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is apparently intending to run for US Senate against Arlen Specter in the Democratic Primary. This was reported today by Talking Points Memo. We will be monitoring this breaking story and will provide in depth analysis. Stay tuned.
CT-Sen: Dodd Now Has Primary Challenger
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 19th, 2009
Today, the Hartford Courant has reported that Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut has a new challenger in the Democratic Party in the form of Connecticut businessman Merrick Alpert. While about two months ago it seemed Dodd was in real political trouble in his own state, the Hartford publication largely down plays this challenger as being an overambitious candidate with little political experience and with a very small chance of defeating Dodd.
At the moment, it seems that Dodd has for now at least temporarily repaired his reputation enough to not be in any real danger of losing a primary. He will also have a strong base of fundraising support especially with the pledged support of President Obama. Still, it is worth noting that he now has an opponent. Two Republicans have already dropped their hats in the Senate race as well.
PA Sen- Ridge Not Running!
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 7th, 2009
Accompanied by an appearance on MSNBC’s Hardball, former popular Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge announced he will not seek the US Senate seat in 2010. Arlen Specter will sleep a little easier tonight.
Toomey Raking in the Money, While Ridge Wins Big in Hypothetical Polls
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 5th, 2009
Pat Toomey has had an amazing three weeks of fundraising according to Politico’s Scorecard blog raising over a half a million dollars. With this kind of money, Toomey may be able to make his pitch to conservative Republicans and get his name out there before Ridge becomes too much of a threat. However, the very polling numbers I was searching for in my last post have been released. That is the numbers of a hypothetical primary match up between Tom Ridge and Pat Toomey. At the moment, the numbers for Toomey look pretty weak. According to the numbers released by Public Opinion Strategies Ridge defeats Toomey at a wopping 60% to Toomey’s 23%. The same polling showed Ridge defeating Specter in a general 48% to 41% and Specter defeating Toomey in a general 49% to 40%.
This looks like a pretty strong climate for a potential Ridge run, but again he has to defend a pro-choice record to an increasingly conservative Republican electorate and will also be receiving major ammo from the right from Pat Toomey who has proven himself to be a fundraising machine.
Another controversy that has sprung up is the fact that Tom Ridge’s current primary residence is not in Pennsylvania but rather a wealthy DC suburb of Chevy Chase, Maryland. This could give Pat Toomey a good shot at throwing out some populist conservative rhetoric making Ridge seem less like a true Pennsylvanian, even though he was a popular governor of the state.
The bottom line is I do not think that Pat Toomey under any circumstance should be underestimated. As long as the state’s Republican Party keeps tipping farther and farther to the right it keeps looking better and better for Toomey. His fundraising performance has been spectacular and all he may need is a little name recognition and to drive the point home to social conservatives that Ridge, in fact, is not a social conservative.