Archive for April, 2009
Early reactions to Specter switch
Posted by Devin in 2010 Elections on April 28th, 2009
GOP Chair Michael Steele:
“Some in the Republican Party are happy about this. I am not. Let’s be honest-Senator Specter didn’t leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record. Republicans look forward to beating Sen. Specter in 2010, assuming the Democrats don’t do it first.”
Sen. Chuck Schumer:
“Arlen Specter, through the years, has been an effective, intelligent and moderate senator. We welcome him into the Democratic Party and our caucus in the Senate with open arms and can understand that his party, particularly in the last three months, has shown no room for moderates. On a personal basis, I look forward to continuing to work with Arlen on a full range of issues. While it will still take a great deal of work to pass the President’s comprehensive and bold agenda, the Republican party will no longer be able to revert to kneejerk filibusters at every whim to block progress, and that is a very good thing for Americans.”
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum:
I spoke with Arlen this morning and he explained his reasoning to me. I told him I was deeply disappointed that he felt he had to do it. It is a huge blow to the Republican’s ability to moderate any of Obama’s very liberal proposals. I can only hope that Arlen will be as independent as a Democrat as he has been as a Republican.
President Obama (via Politico):
The president reached Specter, one of only three Republicans to support his stimulus package, on the phone at 10:32 and told him “you have my full support.” He added that we are “thrilled to have you.”
BREAKING NEWS: ARLEN SPECTER TO SWITCH PARTIES
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 28th, 2009
We at the Daily Horse Race are stunned to hear this news. While we will have a more analytical update on this later, we must report that Arlen Specter is to announce later in the day that he will be switching political parties. Arlen Specter is expected to become a Democrat.
This is HUGE news. If Al Franken is seated, the Democrats will have the fillibuster proof majority.
Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/28/specter.party.switch/
KY Sen- Bunning’s in Trouble, But Will Primary Divide Dems?
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 27th, 2009
CongressDaily reported on Friday about the Kentucky Senate race. As is known, Republican Jim Bunning who currently holds the Senate seat that is up for election in 2010 is in a pretty urgent political situation. His fundraising has been “lousy” which is the adjective used by Bunning himself to describe the situation. He only raised $262,843 in the first quarter and hardly has the support of his own Senate colleagues, especially fellow Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell and head of Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Jon Cornyn.
With the Democrats squabbling in a primary race between two Kentucky heavyweights in the party: Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo, Bunning is lowering expectations saying he projects he only needs to raise $7 million instead of $10 million to win re-election. After the primary, if the Democrats want a shot at winning a state that has gone Republican in the last three Presidential races, they would need to unify and raise money fast.
However, there is a twist to all of this, Republican President of the State Senate David Williams is also considering tossing his hat in as a primary challenger to Bunning, which could further weaken Bunning’s already weak cash flow.
If the Democrats ever had a chance to win back a Kentucky Senate seat, this is it. Mongiardo lost very narrowly to Bunning in 2004 and now that Bunning has lost the faith of two of his most powerful Republican Senate colleagues, being a practical gaffe machine in public life, and being a “lousy” fundraiser, it looks more and more like the Democrats could deliver in Kentucky.
McCain Has Viable Far Right Primary Opponent for 2010
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 23rd, 2009
Ben Smith reported in his Politico blog that John McCain is now facing an opponent running to the right of him for the 2010 Arizona Senate race. The article makes several points that could make this race tough for McCain. First, McCain never delivered on his comprehensive immigration legislation so now he does not necessarily have Hispanic support, and the right is not necessarily happy because he attempted that legislation that broke with most in his party.
Meet Chris Simcox. He is the founder of the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps, a citizen formed militia that takes immigration issues essentially in its own hands. While McCain is obviously a very well known and influential Senator and not necessarily in political trouble in his state, as Smith mentions Simcox could have fundraising support from all across the country (I.E. people who may enjoy Lou Dobbs Reports). With increasing danger at the border, the people of Arizona may be more likely to support a candidate tough on immigration. We will be watching closely as McCain is added to a new list of powerful endangered Senators along with Specter and Dodd.
NY-20: Scott Murphy Leads by 273 Votes
Posted by jaren in 2009 Elections on April 18th, 2009
As if the controversy in the state of Minnesota was not bothersome enough, now it seems we can hardly determine the winner in a semi-rural New York House district. According to MSNBC, Democrat Scott Murphy is leading Republican Jim Tedisco by 273 votes. Hundreds of votes remain to be counted as challenged by Tedisco, but as of now it is looking pretty good for Scott Murphy.
PA-Sen: While Labor Protests Specter’s EFCA Stance, Toomey Makes Run Official
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 15th, 2009
Yesterday, approximately 300 union workers protested outside of Arlen Specter’s Pittsburgh office due to his recent statement that he would oppose the Employee Free Choice Act that he once co-sponsored. The workers delivered around 12,000 letters to the staff in his Pittsburgh office. This is a huge blow from organized labor for Specter and strengthens the overtone that his political career is in great jeopardy.
With Pat Toomey making his run for Senate official today, Specter is looking to be in great danger. The connection of these two events is significant because if Specter would have supported the Employee Free Choice Act he may have been able to get some Democrats to cross over to the Republican Party to support him in a primary run against Toomey. However, with labor and moderate Democrats alienated by Specter, and moderate Republicans hardly existing in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey winning a primary against Specter seems very likely.
Granted, this primary is over a year away and we all know that a year is a century in politics. For those who support Specter, just hope that he has somebody with a smart political strategy leading the way.
PA-Sen Week in Review: Could Specter Be Considering…Retirement?
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 12th, 2009
I am so confused about the intentions of Arlen Specter as I look back upon this week. How badly does he want to remain a Senator? We all know he would be practically handed a victory if he were to switch to the Democratic Party like the short lived rumor that was floating earlier this year. But after abandoning one of the Democratic party’s biggest constituencies with going against the Employee Free Choice Act which he once co-sponsored, that is now all but completely quelled.
As we have stated like a broken record on this blog, now with a shrinking Republican party in the increasingly left leaning state of Pennsylvania, Specter is endangered by Pat Toomey who will very likely be running against him in the primary from the right. Polls overwhelmingly show that he would be in great political danger with this possibility. That being said, one would think Specter would be spending his recess re-connecting with Pennsylvania Republicans.
Instead, we see behavior of someone who one would think is a safe incumbent. Currently, Senator Specter is on vacation in Cancun instead of shaking hands in his home state like another endangered Senate colleague Chris Dodd. Another strange act of polarization was Arlen Specter appearing on the Howard Stern Show earlier this week, where Howard Stern emphatically stated he would supporting Senator Specter. Pat Toomey ought to be sending a postcard to Cancun thanking Senator Specter for the free potential soundbites linking Specter to Stern. I can honestly imagine them in my head right now.
Now back to the original subject line, Specter is now 79 years old, a survivor of cancer and quite an accomplished statesman. Could he, somewhere in the cobwebs of his mind, be considering a retirement? After all, if he wanted to maintain his Senate seat with every bone in his body, would not he be out at the town halls and VFW’s shaking some hands this week like almost every other Senator? Would not he avoid appearing on shock jock radio shows that would greatly offend the deeply socially conservative Pennsylvania Republican base that he needs to win over very quickly? I tend to believe that Specter wants to fight another day as most of his other political actions before this week have seemed to show. But, this past week has been like the strange twist in a novel that mostly reverses back to what you originally expected by the end of the book. But maybe, this twist isn’t so farfetched. Maybe, he’s ready to hang it up…
KY-Sen: Bunning in trouble, Chandler his biggest threat
Posted by Devin in 2010 Elections on April 8th, 2009
It’s no surprise that Bunning is in trouble, considering his reputation has been in decline.
Now a new poll shows him trailing any of the four reasonably positioned Democrats to challenge him. Rep. Ben Chandler stands the best chance at giving Bunning an early retirement, hanging on to a wide 14-point edge, 47-33. Kentucky AG Jack Conway leads by 9 points, 42-33; Auditor Crit Luallen by 8, at 42-34; and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo by 7, 43-36.
Bunning has been reportedly feuding with the Republican leadership, which includes the senior senator from his own state, Kentucky, in Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. In addition, he accused NRSC Chair John Cornyn of recruiting a challenger, and, as we’ve noted, he’s also been struggling with fundraising.
RI-Gov: Chafee Forms Exploratory Committee
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 7th, 2009
According to a Boston Herald article from yesterday, Lincoln Chafee has made the next step in a 2010 run for Governor of Rhode Island. He has formed an exploratory committee which would allow him to begin fundraising for a potential Independent run for governor. This is Chafee’s first attempt back into running for elected office after losing his 2006 race for US Senate which has been a chamber increasingly unfriendly to moderate Northeastern Republicans (I.E. all of our reporting on Arlen Specter). But, as the Herald reported Chafee has a 63% approval rating in a state where 47% of the voters identify as Independents.
So, he’s got the name, the past record, the popularity and the Independent affiliation in an increasingly Independent New England. And, I must admit I am always fascinated by the political moves of moderate Northeastern Republicans so we will be following these developments closely. My guess is that Chafee’s name will be on the ballot.
Specter Framing Election on Three Points
Posted by Jay in 2010 Elections on April 6th, 2009
Senator Arlen Specter, as reported, is going to have a long, hard campaign ahead.
A recent email from Specter reveals three issues that may be key in Specter’s reelection.
The first (1) is the budget. In the email Specter reports that he opposes it because “it spends too much money on top of the $700 billion last year authorized by President Bush.” This is really important because not only is Specter coming out against Obama, he is also trying to stress the important link between himself and independence from either party; (a Maverick of sorts) by also pointing out how he contrasted with Bush.
The Second (2) issue is the Employee Free Choice Act, where Specter’s position had created a huge buzz–when he came out against it– because he was potentially the only Republican pick-up for the bill and key to eliminating a filibuster by the Republicans. In the email he is taking a hard-line Republican rhetorical stance ” [with original stress] the secret ballot is very fundamental in our democratic process” This rhetoric clearly reveals that Specter is going to try to side with the right as much as possibly hoping that Toomey, his most likely opponent in the primary, will have no chance of developing an effective right-of-center movement against him. This proves risky. But nonetheless, it may be the only way for him to campaign successfully as a Republican since he chose not to change parties.
Lastly (3), Specter makes note that David Hamilton’s judicial nomination has been processed too quickly (for his liking). As the ranking Republican on the Judicial Committee watch for Specter to use his voice on this panel as an effective campaigning venue for illustrating his Republican leadership skills.