Arlen Specter candidly admitted that he was switching political parties for fear of losing a GOP primary, but is it really certain Specter can easily win a Democratic primary? Will Pennsylvania Democrats love Arlen Specter as a conservative Democrat rather than the “free thinking” Republican? The primaries are over a year away and that is a lot of time to see how liberal or conservative Arlen Specter really is going to be. Let’s remember, Arlen Specter campaigned in 2004 as a complimentary part of a crucial trio for Pennsylvania along with President Bush and Senator Rick Santorum, two of the most polarizing Republicans in contemporary American history.

Along with his switch to the Democratic Party, Specter was quick to try to assert his political independence saying that he still does not support the Employee Free Choice Act, the bill he once co-sponsored in 2007. Specter all but alienated labor by making that position shift about a month ago, but it is obviously not unprecedented for Specter to be one thing, then another thing, then back to the original thing (I.E. Democrat, Republican, then again Democrat), so it would not be surprising to see him switch back to his original position on that legislation.

As of now, he apparently has support in the primary from President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and Pennsylvania colleague Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr. But as the New York Times reported, this does not necessarily mean he will have no opposition. One of the biggest critics of this whole switch has been Pennsylvania US Rep. Joe Sestak who was considered a likely candidate for the Democratic side in the 2010 Senate race and had this to say on the Bill Press radio show:

“Pennsylvanians need to make this decision and not have it decided by Washington, D.C., Democratic party establishment.”

At the moment, Arlen Specter has completely written off perhaps the most important Democratic Party constituency in the state of Pennsylvania…organized labor. Politico repoted that Specter has been in talks with labor unions to strike (no pun intended) a compromise on the Employee Free Choice Act. However, currently announced candidate Joe Torsella, the former deputy mayor of Philadelphia, and possible candidate Rep. Joe Sestak would have to do is note that Arlen Specter not only was a Republican up until very, very recently, but was a pretty darn conservative Republican at that, not like someone like say Lincoln Chafee. Not to mention, political opportunism is usually not the most popular kind of thing to do when wanting to woo the public, which will most certainly be heavily noted by any of Specter’s challengers.

While it takes only a very small amount of cynicism to predict that Arlen Specter will likely forge a grand compromise on the Employee Free Choice Act and suddenly position himself as a champion of labor, if the Democratic primary electorate is liberal enough Specter could face a situation similar to Joe Lieberman in his 2006 primary run against the more progressive Ned Lamont. Lieberman similarly had a lot of party establishment support, but the electorate ultimately decided it wanted the more liberal anti-war candidate. Specter would also not have the option of running as an independent like Lieberman as we have mentioned before because of Pennsylvania state laws.

The main point is, my belief is that there has been a severe lack of emphasis on the fact that Specter is not necessarily going to be a shoo in for the Democratic Primary. While the conventional wisdom is that Arlen Specter is beloved by Pennsylvania Democrats for so often bucking the Republican Party, again, a conservative Democrat is a lot less loveable than a liberal Republican in a partisan primary race setting. We will see how Specter tries to frame himself in weeks to come, will it be a political “maverick” (to throw around a term that should be forever retired) not bound to any party ideology or a Jim Jeffordsesque switch of voting nearly party line after his switch. Stay tuned…