I must say I was surprised to see how well, at least for now, the Specter defection has worked in his favor. Naturally, I was not surprised to see that the numbers indicate today Arlen Specter would easily defeat Pat Toomey who is pretty conservative for the general Pennsylvania electorate, but nevertheless has appeal to the Republican primary electorate. The Quinnipiac poll indicates that Specter would defeat Toomey 53-33%. However, the polls indicate that Specter’s main worry would be a potential run by former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge who is only down by three points with Specter at 46% and Ridge at 43% in a hypothetical match up.

I was also surprised to hear that Specter is still fairly popular among Pennsylvanians as well. He has a 52% approval rating versus a 34% disapproval rating. The big surprise, also, was how highly favorable he is among Democrats with a 77% approval rating even with his defection on the Employee Free Choice Act and some of the aftermath experienced (and not to mention that he was a Republican six days ago). Democrats also favor Specter over Toomey 85-4%.

So it looks like, at least for now, the switch has worked. Specter is favored by 20% (which seems a little low?) over Toomey and Ridge in union households, but still, my belief is that Specter will need to do some work in winning over the favor of big labor again. And of course, to me, the more siginificant numbers which I did not see reported, are the primary numbers between a hypothetical Ridge/Toomey match up. When we see those numbers, we will know how likely it is Specter will have the easy road or the more difficult road. However, these numbers probably will not be completely accurate until Toomey gets out on the trail and introduces himself to voters (57% of Republicans have not heard of him) and makes his inevitable case to conservatives that he is the pro life candidate as opposed to Ridge.