Archive for category 2009 Elections
VA-Gov: Do We Even Have a Front Runner?
Posted by jaren in 2009 Elections on June 4th, 2009
While it was starting to seem like Terry McAulife to take the clear lead in the Virginia governor’s race with Creigh Deeds as the runner up, Politico’s current top headline notes that Brian Moran came out of a Wednesday night interview sponsored by Politico, Youtube, Google and local ABC affiliate out of Virginia “swinging”. Brian Moran certainly poised himself as the more liberal candidate over national party establishment candidate Terry McAulife and the more moderate Creigh Deeds.
As stated previously, recent polls make the initial lead of Terry McAulife seem a lot less certain. The Washington Examiner reported on June 2 that three polls released in the last two days at that point all showed Terry McAulife not in the lead and one showed former state Delegate Brian Moran ahead by 16 points in the liberal Northern Virginia region, a heavily populated region in the state. The Washington Post endorsement of Creigh Deeds has also made the race a lot less certain by propelling his approval ratings in the DC suburbs and helping him take leads in some polls.
Politico’s Scorecard blog reported on a Public Policy Polling survey that showed Deeds leading McAulife 27 to 24% with Moran close behind at 22%. So, it is hard to tell what could happen in this primary that is just 5 days away on June 9. Creigh Deeds is poising himself as the reasonable Democratic moderate similar to Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. He is considered the underdog who comes from the more rural region of Virginia and may be appealing to Democratic voters outside of the DC region. Terry McAulife is the well connected national candidate who will be aided by his benefit from Bill Clinton and other kingpins within the Democratic Party. Moran has the support of a lot of mayors and is considered a “consensus building” candidate but also, as Politico noted, is currently trying to place himself as the more liberal candidate with Deeds to the right of the race and McAulife somewhere in the middle. We’ll be be watching this race closely as the primary draws very near.
NY-20: Scott Murphy Leads by 273 Votes
Posted by jaren in 2009 Elections on April 18th, 2009
As if the controversy in the state of Minnesota was not bothersome enough, now it seems we can hardly determine the winner in a semi-rural New York House district. According to MSNBC, Democrat Scott Murphy is leading Republican Jim Tedisco by 273 votes. Hundreds of votes remain to be counted as challenged by Tedisco, but as of now it is looking pretty good for Scott Murphy.
NY-20: Murphy leads Tedisco; but by how many votes?
Posted by Devin in 2009 Elections on April 2nd, 2009
At the end of the night, everybody agreed that Scott Murphy (D) was just ahead of James Tedisco by 85 votes. Since, there have been a number of contradictory reports–all maintaining that the lead is dwindling–but with frequently changing leads.
Scorecard, Politico’s election blog, has changing numbers for instance. First, it was down to 25, but then citing a “high-level GOP” source, the lead had shrank to 13 votes–but then acknowledged the official AP count as Murphy leading Tedisco by 25. The same article says an anonymous Democrat pegs the magic number at 30.
Now, it’s only a couple votes either way, but obviously each vote is going to count. For now, based on consensus (several political blogs, including Taegan Goddard at CQ and First Read) are citing the Albany Times-Union’s number:
25.
Scott Murphy (D) Speaking at Election Party
Posted by Jay in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
Scott Murphy’s campaign is upbeat declaring that they won; though they acknowledge that the results are still being counted due to how close the numbers were tonight. The speech developed around two main ideas. The first is Murphy’s focus on creating jobs in upstate NY. The second is supporting Obama’s plans and how this election reflects the support for Obama.
20th district: In play until April 13?
Posted by Jay in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
100% reporting, sort of. The Times Union is reporting a 59 vote difference with Murphy winning. There is , however, a chance that this won’t be clear until the deadline for overseas and military votes are counted April 13th.
If anything right now, it shows this district will be counted as a swing district for some time to come.
NY-20: Murphy wire-thin lead over Tedisco; too close to call?
Posted by Devin in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
With one precinct still out (in Jim Tedisco’s base county of Saratoga), the results:
Scott Murphy (D): 77,208
James Tedisco (R): 77, 127
With the race within a hundred votes and only one precinct left, the absentee ballots will obviously have a lot of weight in the outcome of this race. As mentioned earlier by The Daily Horse Race, as of yesterday, there were 5,907 absentee ballots. It is unclear how many of these will be counted tonight or how many come from where.
NY-20: Polls closed: Tedisco, Murphy results here
Posted by Devin in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
Polls are closed in the New York 20th Congressional District special election. Many people are looking for results. Go to timesunion.com, or the Albany Times Union for the latest results.
Another place to view up-to-date results, as the Albany Times Union site is down.
Murphy (D): 76,573
Tedisco (R): 76,321
Updated 10:17pm EST. Remember those 5,907 absentee ballots we mentioned earlier? Wow. Only 3 precincts out now.
Murphy (D): 73,421
Tedisco (R): 73,523
Updated 10:11pm EST. Two counties still need reporting: Columbia, where Murphy leads, and Saratoga, where Tedisco leads. Eight precincts out in Columbia, while fourteen are out in Saratoga.
Just an observation: as of 10:03pm EST, the counties where Murphy is doing well (Washington, Warren, Essex, Dutchess) are all in. He leads in Columbia, which isn’t. Of the counties Tedisco leads in, Saratoga and Delaware still have more numbers yet to report. Far more votes are coming in from Saratoga than Columbia–and Tedisco already has the lead. This could go to Tedisco very quickly if those trends do not change.
Murphy (D): 62,811
Tedisco (R): 63,923
Updated 9:58pm EST.
Murphy (D): 46,645
Tedisco (R): 46,969
Updated 9:44pm EST. Race is very, very close. It may not be clear who won until very late or tomorrow.
Murphy (D): 16,558
Tedisco (R): 18,390
Updated 9:32pm EST.
VA: Unions Want McAuliffe, Voters Want Moran
Posted by jaren in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
High profile former DNC Chairmen Terry McAuliffe has scored more big union endorsements today including: International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers, and the AFL-CIO. To receive all of these endorsements should make any Democratic contender in the Virginia Gubernatorial primary feel like they are sitting pretty.
However, new poll numbers released today show McAuliffe trailing behind former State Delegate Brian Moran by 4 points. Moran has 22%, McAuliffe has 18% and State Senator Creigh Deeds has 15%. However, with that leaves 45% undecided which seems quite high with a primary just a little over two months away. Combine that with a margin of error at 3.6%, making this race essentially any man’s game. As you know, Daily Horse Race will follow closely…
Labor/Obama Important in 20th District Race
Posted by Jay in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
New York State has one of the strongest and most established labor union forces in the United States. The 20th District’s special election between Tedisco and Murphy has been described as rural but it includes an enclave of labor in the resort town of Saratoga Springs; as well as the affluent–civil service– suburb of Albany: Clifton Park.
Organized labor has made it a goal of helping Scott Murphy by being the vanguard of Murphy’s get-out-the-vote mobilization in the 20th district.
An email by the Capital District Area Labor Federation 2 days ago was even written by Scott Murphy.
I am writing to ask you for one final request — please take a few hours out of your day to volunteer tomorrow, on Election Day. To sign up for a volunteer shift, please email nicki.weiner@gmail.com.
I also wanted to let you know of one final event that the Capital District Area Labor Federation will be hosting. Tomorrow, at 5pm at the Park and Ride, Clifton Park (Exit 8 off the I-87 Northway) we invite you to join former Congressman Mike McNulty, Capital District Area Labor Federation President Joe Fox, PEF President Ken Brynien, and CSEA President Danny Donohue, along with my father and many other local labor leaders for a GOTV Rally to thank everyone for what you have done and what you will continue to do…
Thank you for your continued support:
Scott Murphy
The New York Times (Hat tip to the Times Union Lydia Kulbida’s Blog) City Room reports that organized labor is going so far as passing out a flier that doesn’t even mention Scott Murphy but rather correlates electing Murphy to giving Obama a hand!
The low turn-out reported may be a good thing for Murphy as Labor has really given Murphy a helping hand.
If Murphy wins, New York will sustain a friendly labor Democrat for Upstate New York. Furthermore, Obama’s plans will get a clear mandate and Obama will once again have labor to help credit for his political strengths.
This will increase the Obama Administration’s stake in passing the Employee Free Choice Act.
If Tedisco wins, however, it sends an even louder statement to both labor/Obama and even the Employee Free Choice Act. This is because the mainstream media will most likley reconsider Obama’s mandate and popularity. This race really has that much riding on it.
NY-20: Bad omen for Tedisco?
Posted by Devin in 2009 Elections on March 31st, 2009
As the day wears on, more and more it seems like Tedisco is getting negative press.
Take this, for instance: Tedisco is reported to be text messaging people in Schenectady County, urging them to vote. Here’s a map of the 20th C.D. Unfortunately, Schenectady is not in the 20th.
And many in Schenectady who want to vote for him are being turned away. Unfortunately for Tedisco, the New York Assembly Minority Leader, his district in the New York Assembly and the district he hopes to win today, are not made up by the same geography. In fact, Tedisco can’t even vote for himself: like many of his supporters, he lives in Schenectady. He plans to move to the 20th Congressional District only if he wins today.
National Republicans are also not getting their hopes up, as Republican House leader John Boehner called NY-20 a “Democrat seat” (it had been a solidly Republican seat until Gillibrand won it two years ago).
As for Murphy, he has been riding a wave of positive press in recent days — closing the gap in polls and getting attention from national Democrats.