Posts Tagged Pat Toomey
PA-Sen: As Specter Moves Left, Toomey Makes Gains in General
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on December 21st, 2009
Just over a year ago, Arlen Specter was campaigning for the Presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin as a Republican Senator of Pennsylvania. Of course, when Arlen Specter voted for the Democratic backed stimulus package this past spring, the vote emboldened conservative challenger Pat Toomey to the point where it drove Specter out of his former Republican Party and into the Democratic Party citing poor GOP primary poll numbers.
Initially, Specter came into the Democratic Party as the only viable challenger for the nomination. At that point, he was a conservative Democrat vowing to go against the Employee Free Choice Act and a public option in health care . As his primary challenger Joe Sestak pointed out in a recent Huffington Post op-ed, where he tries to paint Specter as “Pennsylvania’s Joe Lieberman,” Specter has switched his position on both of these issues among others. Furthermore, Specter has also positioned himself to the left of Joe Sestak on the Afghanistan escalation painting himself as a dove while Sestak has taken a hawkish position.
A recent Quinniapiac poll has Specter tied with Toomey in a general election match up, while in May he had a 53-33 lead over Toomey. Specter still has a comfortable lead over Joe Sestak in the primary with a 53-30 lead, in fact, he has made gains since October when the numbers were 44-25 for Specter.
So for now, at least in his primary race, Specter’s leftward leans have worked to his favor. However, if Rep. Sestak can get his voice heard and push his message that Specter has only made his leftward leans to advance his long time career of opportunism, it could be damaging to Specter in a primary race. So far, obviously, it has not resonated. One thing is for certain, Pennsylvania politics could be changing. One year ago, no one would imagine Toomey, a Santorum-style conservative, tying or beating a Democrat in statewide polls.
Toomey Raking in the Money, While Ridge Wins Big in Hypothetical Polls
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 5th, 2009
Pat Toomey has had an amazing three weeks of fundraising according to Politico’s Scorecard blog raising over a half a million dollars. With this kind of money, Toomey may be able to make his pitch to conservative Republicans and get his name out there before Ridge becomes too much of a threat. However, the very polling numbers I was searching for in my last post have been released. That is the numbers of a hypothetical primary match up between Tom Ridge and Pat Toomey. At the moment, the numbers for Toomey look pretty weak. According to the numbers released by Public Opinion Strategies Ridge defeats Toomey at a wopping 60% to Toomey’s 23%. The same polling showed Ridge defeating Specter in a general 48% to 41% and Specter defeating Toomey in a general 49% to 40%.
This looks like a pretty strong climate for a potential Ridge run, but again he has to defend a pro-choice record to an increasingly conservative Republican electorate and will also be receiving major ammo from the right from Pat Toomey who has proven himself to be a fundraising machine.
Another controversy that has sprung up is the fact that Tom Ridge’s current primary residence is not in Pennsylvania but rather a wealthy DC suburb of Chevy Chase, Maryland. This could give Pat Toomey a good shot at throwing out some populist conservative rhetoric making Ridge seem less like a true Pennsylvanian, even though he was a popular governor of the state.
The bottom line is I do not think that Pat Toomey under any circumstance should be underestimated. As long as the state’s Republican Party keeps tipping farther and farther to the right it keeps looking better and better for Toomey. His fundraising performance has been spectacular and all he may need is a little name recognition and to drive the point home to social conservatives that Ridge, in fact, is not a social conservative.
Has the Specter Switch Worked?
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 4th, 2009
I must say I was surprised to see how well, at least for now, the Specter defection has worked in his favor. Naturally, I was not surprised to see that the numbers indicate today Arlen Specter would easily defeat Pat Toomey who is pretty conservative for the general Pennsylvania electorate, but nevertheless has appeal to the Republican primary electorate. The Quinnipiac poll indicates that Specter would defeat Toomey 53-33%. However, the polls indicate that Specter’s main worry would be a potential run by former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge who is only down by three points with Specter at 46% and Ridge at 43% in a hypothetical match up.
I was also surprised to hear that Specter is still fairly popular among Pennsylvanians as well. He has a 52% approval rating versus a 34% disapproval rating. The big surprise, also, was how highly favorable he is among Democrats with a 77% approval rating even with his defection on the Employee Free Choice Act and some of the aftermath experienced (and not to mention that he was a Republican six days ago). Democrats also favor Specter over Toomey 85-4%.
So it looks like, at least for now, the switch has worked. Specter is favored by 20% (which seems a little low?) over Toomey and Ridge in union households, but still, my belief is that Specter will need to do some work in winning over the favor of big labor again. And of course, to me, the more siginificant numbers which I did not see reported, are the primary numbers between a hypothetical Ridge/Toomey match up. When we see those numbers, we will know how likely it is Specter will have the easy road or the more difficult road. However, these numbers probably will not be completely accurate until Toomey gets out on the trail and introduces himself to voters (57% of Republicans have not heard of him) and makes his inevitable case to conservatives that he is the pro life candidate as opposed to Ridge.
PA-Sen Tom Ridge to Possibly Toss in His Hat
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on May 3rd, 2009
I would imagine that when Arlen Specter switched his party affiliation ahead of the 2010 Senate primaries that he believed to some extent he would be a shoo-in candidate. The support of top Democratic Party leaders was in tact, and Pat Toomey was considered far too conservative to have cross state appeal in the increasingly blue state of Pennsylvania. The story of the fight for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat has taken the ultimate twist beyond the wildest fantasies of most political dorks including myself. Today, Politico has reported that former popular Pennsylvania Governor turned first ever Homeland Security secretary Tom Ridge is “seriously considering” a run for Senate. He is being courted as a moderate alternative to the very conserative Pat Toomey.
Honestly, it is my guess that Tom Ridge could easily defeat Pat Toomey in a primary. Obviously, it’s too early to have any numbers on a potential Tom Ridge run against Pat Toomey, but this story literally came out of nowhere and I imagine will have many speculating this week the future of that Senate seat. Assuming Specter and Ridge would both win their potential primaries it would be one of the strangest Senate races in contemporary history due to the fact that both of them are essentially moderate Republicans. They are both considered pro-choice conservatives who would have pretty similar positions on most of the issues from what I can gather.
One thing is for certain, this will make Specter’s run for Senate quite difficult if Ridge runs and wins a Republican primary, certainly it would be an uphill climb especially since there will be a heavy notion in the air that Arlen Specter seems to be somewhat of a political opportunist. Not only that, it would be two candidates running against each other that were both closely affiliated to President Bush. All of this being said, we will be following all developments on this story very closely.
PA-Sen: While Labor Protests Specter’s EFCA Stance, Toomey Makes Run Official
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 15th, 2009
Yesterday, approximately 300 union workers protested outside of Arlen Specter’s Pittsburgh office due to his recent statement that he would oppose the Employee Free Choice Act that he once co-sponsored. The workers delivered around 12,000 letters to the staff in his Pittsburgh office. This is a huge blow from organized labor for Specter and strengthens the overtone that his political career is in great jeopardy.
With Pat Toomey making his run for Senate official today, Specter is looking to be in great danger. The connection of these two events is significant because if Specter would have supported the Employee Free Choice Act he may have been able to get some Democrats to cross over to the Republican Party to support him in a primary run against Toomey. However, with labor and moderate Democrats alienated by Specter, and moderate Republicans hardly existing in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey winning a primary against Specter seems very likely.
Granted, this primary is over a year away and we all know that a year is a century in politics. For those who support Specter, just hope that he has somebody with a smart political strategy leading the way.
PA-Sen Week in Review: Could Specter Be Considering…Retirement?
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 12th, 2009
I am so confused about the intentions of Arlen Specter as I look back upon this week. How badly does he want to remain a Senator? We all know he would be practically handed a victory if he were to switch to the Democratic Party like the short lived rumor that was floating earlier this year. But after abandoning one of the Democratic party’s biggest constituencies with going against the Employee Free Choice Act which he once co-sponsored, that is now all but completely quelled.
As we have stated like a broken record on this blog, now with a shrinking Republican party in the increasingly left leaning state of Pennsylvania, Specter is endangered by Pat Toomey who will very likely be running against him in the primary from the right. Polls overwhelmingly show that he would be in great political danger with this possibility. That being said, one would think Specter would be spending his recess re-connecting with Pennsylvania Republicans.
Instead, we see behavior of someone who one would think is a safe incumbent. Currently, Senator Specter is on vacation in Cancun instead of shaking hands in his home state like another endangered Senate colleague Chris Dodd. Another strange act of polarization was Arlen Specter appearing on the Howard Stern Show earlier this week, where Howard Stern emphatically stated he would supporting Senator Specter. Pat Toomey ought to be sending a postcard to Cancun thanking Senator Specter for the free potential soundbites linking Specter to Stern. I can honestly imagine them in my head right now.
Now back to the original subject line, Specter is now 79 years old, a survivor of cancer and quite an accomplished statesman. Could he, somewhere in the cobwebs of his mind, be considering a retirement? After all, if he wanted to maintain his Senate seat with every bone in his body, would not he be out at the town halls and VFW’s shaking some hands this week like almost every other Senator? Would not he avoid appearing on shock jock radio shows that would greatly offend the deeply socially conservative Pennsylvania Republican base that he needs to win over very quickly? I tend to believe that Specter wants to fight another day as most of his other political actions before this week have seemed to show. But, this past week has been like the strange twist in a novel that mostly reverses back to what you originally expected by the end of the book. But maybe, this twist isn’t so farfetched. Maybe, he’s ready to hang it up…
Specter Framing Election on Three Points
Posted by Jay in 2010 Elections on April 6th, 2009
Senator Arlen Specter, as reported, is going to have a long, hard campaign ahead.
A recent email from Specter reveals three issues that may be key in Specter’s reelection.
The first (1) is the budget. In the email Specter reports that he opposes it because “it spends too much money on top of the $700 billion last year authorized by President Bush.” This is really important because not only is Specter coming out against Obama, he is also trying to stress the important link between himself and independence from either party; (a Maverick of sorts) by also pointing out how he contrasted with Bush.
The Second (2) issue is the Employee Free Choice Act, where Specter’s position had created a huge buzz–when he came out against it– because he was potentially the only Republican pick-up for the bill and key to eliminating a filibuster by the Republicans. In the email he is taking a hard-line Republican rhetorical stance ” [with original stress] the secret ballot is very fundamental in our democratic process” This rhetoric clearly reveals that Specter is going to try to side with the right as much as possibly hoping that Toomey, his most likely opponent in the primary, will have no chance of developing an effective right-of-center movement against him. This proves risky. But nonetheless, it may be the only way for him to campaign successfully as a Republican since he chose not to change parties.
Lastly (3), Specter makes note that David Hamilton’s judicial nomination has been processed too quickly (for his liking). As the ranking Republican on the Judicial Committee watch for Specter to use his voice on this panel as an effective campaigning venue for illustrating his Republican leadership skills.
PA-Sen: Specter is Already Campaigning Against Toomey
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on April 2nd, 2009
In the last post regarding this race, I mentioned a Daily Kos piece about Specter’s seemingly impossible chances to win re-election in the Republican primary. The next day, the go to guy for Pennsylvania politics G. Terry Madonna wrote a piece expressing similar sentiments. It seems that Specter is getting the message.
Already, Specter has released an ad trying to tie Toomey to Wall Street. Specter has also released a first campaign e-mail playing up his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act. We here at Daily Horse Race try to emphasize the sport of politics, and boy is Specter playing the game. After being a moderate voice at the beginning of the year and being rumored to switching to the Democratic Party, he made a McCainesque jump into sudden full on conservatism. The bottom line? Specter does not want to be anything but a Republican and after serving for so long will not lose to someone like Pat Toomey without a hard fight. Game on.
Arlen Specter, In Search of Conservative Credibility, Introduces Flat Tax Legislation
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on March 31st, 2009
Richard Mellon Scaife. In his defense, he has tried to introduce similar legislation in the past, but the timing seems quite uncanny.
While Arlen Specter should be applauded for his lengthy independent voting record and breaking ranks with his party seemingly on principle, it seems as though now he is ready to play politics to the extent that he wants to remain a Republican. Unfortunately, voting for Obama’s economic agenda is something Toomey won’t let the base forget. He also may have lost his chance to run as an Independent with vowing to go against the Employee Free Choice Act. As the Moulitsas’ piece notes, at this very moment it seems no matter how Specter tries to run in 2010, he seems like he is going to get burned.
Through Action and Words, Specter Poises Himself for a Primary Battle
Posted by jaren in 2010 Elections on March 25th, 2009
As reported earlier by Devin and thoughtfully analyzed by Jay later in the evening, Arlen Specter has decided to take a position against the Employee Free Choice Act after weeks of media speculation.
Not only that, Specter has also heightened the rhetoric and directly addressed likely opponent Pat Toomey after a speech in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania on Monday.
This coming from the Commonwealth Confidential blog on philly.com:
“I see the front page headline in The Philadelphia Inquirer that he’s going to run against me because of my single vote on the stimulus package,” said Specter. “Well, I’ve voted 10,000 times, I don’t expect people to agree with me on every vote.”
“And when it comes to votes, my 2004 opponent has a lot of explaining to do himself,” he said. “He was on Wall Street with these derivates and credit swaps, and helped to create the problem. Then he went to the Congress and voted for deregulation
Then, Specter wrapped it up with this gem:
“He’s like the AIG employees: he creates the problem, now he wants the bonus,” he said of Toomey, president of the national limited-government activist group Club for Growth. “He wants to be promoted to the Senate. He’s going to have more votes to explain than I do. Stay tuned.”
Specter has directly confronted Toomey likening him to the most unpopular people in America right now. It is clear that Specter sees Toomey as a legitimate threat based on the action he has been taking. He opposed the Employee Free Choice Act, which appeals to the right wing base but also said he is open to re-consideration which is appealing to those who like the more independent thinking Specter. The path of switching to an Independent is far from appealing for a life long Republican. Specter is ready to take Toomey on, but will need to enlist a largely non-existent moderate Republican base in order to do so. Labor will not easily forgive his change of heart.